2028
Everyone plausibly running for the Democratic nomination, sorted into five tiers. The tiers are our judgment about who is in contention, not a prediction of who wins. We move people when something concrete changes.
The field
23 namesTier 1
Would clear a field if they ran 4Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Representative, New York 14th
Rep. Ocasio-Cortez has the name ID and fundraising base to start as a frontrunner.
Gavin Newsom
Governor of California
Gov. Newsom has near universal name ID among Democratic activists and potentially the deepest small-dollar donor list in the field.
Kamala Harris
Former Vice President and Senator
VP Harris should start as the frontrunner should she choose to run again, this time with a full cycle - not months.
Pete Buttigieg
Former U.S. Transportation Secretary
Sec. Buttigieg has a base of support that is nearly as strong as when he dropped out in 2020.
Tier 2
Serious, with a real constituency 5Andy Beshear
Governor of Kentucky
Gov. Beshear brings a red-state background missing from the field.
J.B. Pritzker
Governor of Illinois
Gov. Pritzker is an intriguing candidate in his own right, but his ability to self-fund moves him up at least one tier.
Jon Ossoff
Senator, Georgia
Sen. Ossoff says he isn't running. We think that's because his up for re-election, not because he's decided.
Mark Kelly
Senator, Arizona
Sen. Kelly has been tireless this cycle supporting candidates across the country, a sign he might call on them for help in a race of his own.
Wes Moore
Governor of Maryland
Gov. Moore could be the most talented politician in the field but isn't as well-known as the tier 1 candidates yet.
Tier 3
Running or close to it, needs a moment 4Cory Booker
Senator, New Jersey
Sen. Booker still has a national network and volunteer base that could stick with him.
Josh Shapiro
Governor of Pennsylvania
Gov. Shaprio is walking away with his reelect in a tough state, and he'd use that to show he's a compelling general election candidate.
Raphael Warnock
Senator, Georgia
Sen. Warnock is a very talented politician who has won tough races and should be talked about more for 2028.
Roy Cooper
Former Governor of North Carolina, running for Senate
Gov. Cooper is about to be a first-term Senator so he's not likely to run, but his popularity in the state is leading to a runaway win - which should give him some buzz.
Tier 4
Talked about more than they are running 7Amy Klobuchar
Senator, Minnesota, running for Governor
Sen. Klobuchar is very unlikely to run given she's about to be a first-term Governor, but never say never.
Chris Murphy
Senator, Connecticut
Sen. Murphy has been talked about as an up-and-comer for years now, but it remains to be seen if he has the profile to stand out.
Elissa Slotkin
Senator, Michigan
Sen. Slotkin has a compelling national security background and is a proven winner of a tough race.
Gretchen Whitmer
Governor of Michigan
Gov. Whitmer would be higher, but she seems emphatic about not running. We'll see.
Rahm Emanuel
Former Ambassador to Japan, Mayor and Congressman
Amb. Emanuel brings a more moderate vision to the field and is pitching himself as a take-no-prisoners winner.
Ro Khanna
Representative, California 17th
Rep. Khanna is trying to take the Bernie Sanders torch from AOC. We'll see if he can do it.
Ruben Gallego
Senator, Arizona
Sen. Gallego doesn't have a huge national profile, but he's positioning himself as a fighter who can take on Republicans.
Tier 5
Long shots and wildcards 3Chris Van Hollen
Senator, Maryland
Sen. Van Hollen seems more likely to challenge Sen. Schumer for Senate Leader than actually run.
Mitch Landrieu
Former Biden White House Official and Mayor of New Orleans
Mayor Landrieu seems unlikely to run, but definitely brings a different voice that could stand out if he chooses to.
Shawn Fain
President of the United Auto Workers
Fain is the only non-politician on the list, but brings a base of support and has an interesting story to tell.