The Caucus +
Senate · Texas Senate

Talarico vs Paxton

General election · primary Mar 3 · general Nov 3, 2026

Dem James Talarico (D)
Challenger
Raised $128.77M
VS
Rep Ken Paxton (R)
Challenger
Raised $19.50M

The money

$365.01M in all, FEC through the most recent reports
Raised by the candidates
Democrats
$147.51M
across the Democratic field
Republicans
$35.94M
across the Republican field
Whole field
$183.46M
10 candidates
Spent by outside groups
Total
$181.55M
first arrived Jan 15
Against Democrats
$63.49M
of that total
For Democrats
$17.24M
of that total
On other candidates
$100.83M
for or against

How the state votes

Most recent first
2024 president R+14
2020 resultHegar vs Cornyn R+10

Polling

12 polls of the current matchup
Average of the last three non-partisan polls
Talarico 48.7 Paxton 46.7 D+2.0
PollsterDatesSample Talarico PaxtonMargin
ActiVote Oct 14 400 LV 52.0 48.0 D+4
InsiderAdvantage (R)Partisan Oct 14 1,200 LV 48.0 49.0 R+1
Marist University Oct 11 — 47.0 45.0 D+2
Quantus Insights Oct 11 854 LV 47.0 47.0 Even
Quantus Insights (R)Partisan Oct 11 854 LV 47.0 47.0 Even
ReconMR/ Siena University Oct 8 617 LV 48.0 44.0 D+4
Trafalgar Group (R)Partisan Oct 8 1,086 LV 47.0 44.0 D+3
University of Texas /Texas Politics Project Oct 5 861 LV 50.0 47.0 D+3
YouGov Oct 5 3,625 LV 50.0 44.0 D+6
New York Times / Siena University Sep 30 615 LV 51.0 45.0 D+6
Rasmussen Reports Sep 29 1,128 LV 46.0 45.0 D+1
Rasmussen Reports (R)Partisan Sep 29 1,128 LV 46.0 45.0 D+1
Partisan polls are sponsored by a campaign, party or aligned group and are marked. They are shown because they are part of the record, not because they carry the same weight.